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The No. 1 Document of the Central Committee of 2017 released on February 5 stated that it is necessary to adjust and improve the target price policy for cotton in Xinjiang and improve the subsidy method.

In China, there are only two types of crops that are subject to the target price policy pilot, namely cotton and soybean. Moreover, the pilot has also delineated the scope of cotton in Xinjiang, soybeans in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia. This year's Central No. 1 document also proposed to adjust the soybean target price policy.

It is worthy of comparison that both cotton and soybeans have inverted domestic and international prices, which has led to increased imports. However, the protection of cotton related import quotas (894,000 tons), soybeans were strategically “abandoned”, and thus China’s imported soybeans in recent years exceeded 80 million tons. According to official data, in 2016, China's foreign dependence on soybeans was 87.54%. Among them, almost all imported parts are genetically modified soybeans.

Seeing the “No. 1” target price of cotton in Xinjiang, which was published in the No. 1 Document of the Central Committee in 2014, it actually shoulders the heavy responsibility of rationalizing the domestic cotton industry chain and balancing the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton.

On the 6th, at the press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Han Jun, deputy director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, told the First Financial Reporter that the (cotton target price) reform was still very successful. Xinjiang will continue to implement it. As for how to “adjust and improve”, relevant departments are now studying the development of further policy options.

Relay of two policies

The purpose of agricultural policy is to protect the interests of farmers.

Taking China's cotton policy since 2011 as an example, in March of that year, “to stabilize the cotton production, operators and cotton enterprises market expectations, protect the interests of cotton farmers, and protect market supply”, China began to implement temporary cotton storage system, eight ministries Jointly formulated the "2011 cotton temporary storage plan", the implementation of the 13 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in the main cotton producing areas, the temporary storage price of 19,800 yuan / ton.

The cotton temporary storage acquisition policy lasted for three years, and the implementation area has not changed. However, the purchase price has been raised to 20,400 yuan/ton in 2012, and this price continues to the next year. By 2014, with the No. 1 Document of the Central Government as a symbol, the state no longer carried out temporary collection and storage at a fixed price, changed its target price policy, and piloted it in Xinjiang.

The target price refers to the fact that the country sets the target price that can guarantee the grower's basic income on the basis that the cotton price is mainly formed by the market. When the average market price during the price period is lower than the target price, the state subsidizes the cotton growers; when the market price is higher than the target price, the subsidy is not paid.

The principle of target price is “production cost + basic income”. There is a guarantee factor in its specific calculation method. The value of this coefficient depends on the country's comprehensive consideration of the supply and demand situation of the cotton market, the cost and benefit of cotton planting, and the financial sustainability. .

It is worth comparing that the policy has also been running for three years. The temporary purchase purchase policy has raised the price of a cotton purchase and is at a high level. The target price of cotton has steadily decreased year by year, from 19,800 yuan/ton in 2014 to the second. In the year of 19,100 yuan / ton, and then to 2016, 18,600 yuan / ton. The industry believes that this move is not only conducive to controlling the amount of financial subsidies, but also appropriately "corrected" cotton prices on the basis of stabilizing the expectations of Xinjiang farmers.

On the surface, the starting point of the two policies of acquisition and target price is to protect the interests of cotton farmers, but the acquisition policy of the temporary reserve is “received for income”, ignoring the interests of cotton textile enterprises downstream of the industrial chain, and the target price “ Improvement provides policy efficiency. From a macro perspective, China needs to face up to the financial and inventory pressure brought by cotton storage and storage, as well as the widening of domestic and international cotton spreads, and the increase in domestic labor costs, which has greatly weakened the competitiveness of the domestic cotton textile industry. reality.

In the region where the target price pilot policy is implemented, according to the national reform plan, it is only implemented in Xinjiang. The Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin cotton area only implement the fixed subsidy method, covering the nine provinces. The annual subsidy amount is 60% of the Xinjiang subsidy standard. The 2,000 yuan is the upper limit.

The proportion of Xinjiang cotton climbed

China has three major cotton producing areas, namely the Yellow River Basin Cotton Region, the Yangtze River Basin Cotton Region, and the Xinjiang Cotton Region. Since the operation area of ​​the temporary storage acquisition policy covers the three major cotton producing areas, and the target price policy of the pilot is closed in Xinjiang, the most intuitive change brought about by the three-year operation of this cycle is that the status of the Xinjiang cotton area is becoming more and more important.

Previously, cotton production in the Mainland accounted for two-thirds of the country's total. Nowadays, due to the continued decline in cotton planting income in the Mainland, coupled with Xinjiang's policy advantages, the shrinkage of cotton planting in the Mainland is irreversible, and the proportion of Xinjiang cotton production has exceeded two-thirds. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the three years of the target price policy pilot in 2014-2016, although the national cotton production continued to decline, the output of Xinjiang cotton was stable and its proportion increased year by year, from 59.5% to 62.5%. Then to 67.3%.

In recent years, there has been a shortage of raw material resources in the domestic cotton market, and the phenomenon of “insufficient production” has become increasingly normal. Considering the situation that the domestic cotton planting area and output decline are gradually appearing, and the labor cost is rising, the downstream cotton industry is shifting to the main cotton producing areas and low labor cost areas, and the market structure is undergoing major changes.

Fu Bin, deputy director of the COFCO Futures Research Institute, told the First Financial Reporter that the target price policy not only increased the proportion of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the country, but also effectively improved the efficiency of cotton planting. For example, cotton farmers strengthened field management. Accepting the promotion of improved varieties and other methods to improve yields is of positive significance for the long-term development of the cotton planting industry in Xinjiang.

According to official data, during the three years from 2014 to 2016, the yields of Xinjiang cotton were 125.5 kg/mu, 122.7 kg/mu and 132.7 kg/mu respectively.

Fu Bin mentioned that the climatic conditions in Xinjiang are very suitable for cotton growth. The quality of cotton produced is excellent, the cost of cotton planting is lower than that of the mainland, and the yield per unit area is higher than that of the mainland. Secondly, in addition to planting cotton, the cotton growing areas in the interior can also grow food crops, vegetables, etc., while the cotton growing areas in Xinjiang have fewer options for alternative planting.

He believes that in the long run, the national industrial policy to Xinjiang cotton tilt is the result of trade-offs, but also conducive to the adjustment of agricultural products 000061, buy industrial structure. In addition to cotton planting, Xinjiang has also given many preferential policies to cotton spinning enterprises in setting up factories in Xinjiang. It is forming a competitive advantage of upstream and downstream integration, love, base, and information.

The price difference between inside and outside cotton tends to shrink

According to the results of WTO negotiations, China implements quota management on cotton imports.

Specifically, a 1% import tax is imposed within the 894,000 tons of tariff quotas, of which two-thirds are granted to non-state-run trading companies, and state-run trade accounts for one-third. Imported cotton that exceeds the quota portion is subject to a 40% tariff, which is determined by the Chinese government. Among them, the quotas determined in this part include the “sliding standard tax quota”, the tax rate ranges from 5% to 40%, and the tax is paid according to the principle of high price and low tax rate and low price and high tax rate.

The domestic target price policy is aimed at narrowing the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and rationalizing the upstream and downstream industrial chain of cotton. Did you achieve this goal by 2016? The United States is the world's largest cotton exporter. India's cotton has a place in the cotton export market because of its price advantage. It is representative of the price difference between US cotton, printed cotton and domestic cotton.

In terms of the cotton price difference between China and the United States, the import price of US cotton in the 1% tariff quota has been lower than that of domestically produced 328 cotton. Since the target price policy was implemented, the price difference between the two countries has been shrinking. In August 2014, the price difference between China and the United States reached a maximum of 5,030 yuan / ton, and has since continued to shrink, currently holding steady at around 1,340 yuan / ton.

In terms of the price difference between China and India, the import price of Indian cotton in the 1% tariff quota has been lower than that of domestically produced 328 cotton. Since the target price policy was implemented, the price difference between the two has been shrinking. In January 2014, the price difference between China and India reached 6010 yuan/ton, and has been shrinking since then. It is currently stable at around 1425 yuan/ton.

During the period of cotton purchase and purchase policy, the price of cotton in the international cotton market fell and then fell, resulting in a price difference of 4,000-5,000 yuan per ton of cotton at home and abroad, and the three-year implementation of the target price policy to narrow the gap between domestic and foreign cotton. The effect is still obvious. The industry believes that the adjustment of the cotton policy is now around the return of cotton prices to the market, so that cotton quality can meet the needs of cotton textile enterprises to upgrade products.

Changes in the circulation situation of the cotton market

In Xinjiang, cotton is divided into two types, one is ordinary cotton, the industry is called upland cotton or fine cotton, and the other is long-staple cotton. Compared with upland cotton, this is a high-quality cotton variety. Cotton fiber is long and popular in certain markets, but the output is lower and the cost is higher, so in general, the market purchase price will be higher.

To a certain extent, the target price policy also has a guideline for guiding high-quality cotton. This is due to the previous temporary collection and storage policy. The main body of the collection and storage is the state, and the acquisition enterprise pursues high yield rather than high quality. Nowadays, most of the acquired companies are purchasing for themselves. They must strictly check and subdivide the standards. Otherwise, cotton will not be sold at a good price in cotton spinning enterprises.

In the three-year implementation plan of the target price policy, it can be found that in the 2015 plan, special cotton (including long-staple cotton and colored cotton) maintains the preferential policies for 2014, and the target price subsidy standard (output portion) is the target price of upland cotton. 1.3 times the subsidy standard (output part). The planting area and output of special cotton are separately reported and reported separately.

However, in 2016, the two types of cotton were uncharacteristically out of the price gap.

Previously, at the third session of the Forum, Esquel Group Vice Chairman and CEO Che Kezhen accepted an interview with the First Financial Reporter that since the products need to use long-staple cotton, from the perspective of the company, it has been encouraging Cotton farmers are also willing to pay a high price for the acquisition. However, the cotton farmers' follow-up planting, coupled with the good rains in 2016, the rapid increase in production, but the price has fallen.

In China, the output of long-staple cotton is stable at around 100,000 tons per year according to industry statistics. Che Kezhen said that this is not enough to meet the needs of 2-3 large fabric factories. However, since 2014, the production of long-staple cotton has gradually increased, reaching nearly 110,000 tons by 2015 and close to 150,000 tons in 2016. The oversupply has caused the price of long-staple cotton to fall, and the current business days are better.

However, the upland cotton that has been sluggish for several consecutive years has risen repeatedly, which makes the national cotton processing and circulation enterprises and textile enterprises feel embarrassed. For example, cotton processing and distribution companies have long been willing to sell their cotton in hand because of the generally bearish attitude towards the price trend of the cotton market in 2016. Textile companies have been accustomed to “buy and use” in the past few years, and basically have not stored cotton. After the cotton market changed in the second half of 2016, it was caught off guard. Some textile enterprises along the coast, in order to resist the skyrocketing cotton prices, temporarily suspended production and stopped production. In recent years, Xinjiang has made remarkable achievements in the development of the textile industry. However, as cotton was sold to the mainland in advance, textiles in Xinjiang were in a hurry, and some enterprises had to adjust cotton from the mainland.

On the rise of this price, Qin Zhongchun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, published an article saying that this indicates that the circulation situation in the cotton market has undergone major changes. On the one hand, it reflects that China's cotton market price operation is returning from abnormal to normal, and the market has played a decisive role in resource allocation. On the other hand, it also reflects the shortage of cotton production in China, but the price changes are complicated, and the market mechanism is for farmers. There is an objective failure in the distribution of interests, which requires the state to take measures; that is, it reflects the shortcomings of China’s implementation of the temporary cotton purchasing and storage policy in previous years. The implementation of this policy objectively forms an interest group, and the warehousers are reluctant to The library is even slow to go out of the warehouse and must be reformed and improved.

In order to avoid the quota of imported international cotton and reduce the cost of cotton, domestic textile companies have begun to move factories to Southeast Asia and other countries. In this regard, Che Kezhen said that for domestic textile enterprises, the most fear is that there is no cotton, followed by domestic and foreign cotton price inversion, and domestic quotas can not get import quotas, which directly leads to cost control, Foreign companies and domestic companies that can get quotas cannot compare and lack competitiveness.

Regarding tariff quotas and the allocation of quotas, some insiders said that they should not be so tightly restricted. If they are to be leveled with the international market, they should loosen their quotas or even cancel them. However, Guo Jianjun, deputy general manager of Zhongyan Futures, told the First Financial Reporter that it is difficult to cancel the quota when there is a huge amount of upside down cotton prices at home and abroad. If the quota is cancelled, it will impact the domestic cotton planting industry.

Leverage of policy subsidies

The core of the target price policy is reflected in the subsidy. For example, how to make up, replenish who, how to make up, make up, and who to fill the policy details, play a considerable leverage, and also represents the country's policy orientation and comprehensive considerations.

Taking “how to make up” as an example, during the period of temporary collection and storage policy, the state subsidized farmers by purchasing the lint processed by the ginning factory at a high price, which led the ginning factory to maintain the purchase price of the seed cotton for the farmers. A higher level to achieve. However, this "dark supplement" is criticized in the industry, not only the subsidy efficiency is low, but also there is a big leakage in the middle link - after the ginning factory gets the national money, it pushes the purchase price, and in this link, the enterprise has "discounted "The "cut" space, "leakage" is serious. Now, after the target price is piloted, the state will directly send the special subsidy funds to the farmers through the grassroots government. There will be no leakage of intermediate links, no reserve cotton inventory expenses and interest expenses will be generated, and the efficiency of fund subsidies will be greatly improved.

However, Yan Xueling, director of the Market Trade Research Office of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, published an article saying that the target price level has been viewed from the past three years. There are two problems: First, the target price is more difficult to develop and eventually becomes different. The result of the game between different departments and different stakeholders. Due to the different interests of different entities and different departments, the policy views are inconsistent, and the understanding of industrial development is also different. The differences of opinions between the parties are getting bigger and bigger, which makes the formulation of target prices more and more difficult. Second, market participants are unpredictable about the target price level. In 2014-2016, although the cost of cotton production is growing, the target price of cotton continues to be lowered. Whether it will continue to be revised downwards or how it will change in the future is unclear and is not conducive to market production decisions.

In addition, the sustainability of subsidies also requires consideration of international rules.

According to the WTO rules, the target price subsidy implemented in China is a “yellow box subsidy”, and the amount of subsidies is subject to the micro-permissible ceiling. According to the WTO commitments, the amount of subsidies for certain varieties of “yellow boxes” in China shall not exceed 8.5% of the total output value of the year. From the practical point of view, the subsidy quota for the cotton target price subsidy for two consecutive years has been subject to the subsidy ceiling. If no measures are taken to evade in the future, it will likely cause other member states to question and trigger trade disputes.

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