"From about 10.3 at the end of November last year to today's 8.3, it is equal to a full 20% discount." A woman who has just completed the exchange procedures at the Bank of China (601988, stocks) feels particularly embarrassed, "My hand A little euro, it was the son who worked hard to study and study in Europe before, and he has not been willing to change. The main reason is that the US dollar has been bad for several years. I am optimistic that the euro can appreciate. I did not expect this to evaporate by 20%. deficit!" PC Sport Sunglasses, Cheap Sport Sunglasses, Fashion Plastic Sunglasses Women Sunglasses,Men Sunglasses Co., Ltd. , http://www.chsunglasses.com
People who often go to the Bank of China to handle business must know that many "foreign exchange dealers" will ask you at the door. "Do you change the euro? Change the dollar?" Now, these dealers have a hard time because the dollar and the euro are both Not strong, the renminbi seems to be able to preserve value.
Since the end of December last year, the euro has been falling due to the Greek sovereign crisis. Throughout May, the euro/dollar fell by 7.5%, the largest monthly decline since 2009. On June 2, the exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi reached 1:8.3528. So far, the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi has reached about 15%.
On May 22, the Bank of Spain's takeover of a bank in the country cast a shadow over the euro's movement. In the future, what will happen to the euro, will it further trigger the disintegration of the euro economy? In today's global integration, as the world's second largest economy, European developments are bound to affect China.
The export volume of European exports rose. "In Christmas 2007, I happened to be working in New York. I found that Europeans on New York's Fifth Avenue were overcrowded because the euro could be exchanged for a lot of dollars, so Europeans bought Many commodities on the Fifth Avenue, especially some luxury goods, feel very cheap. In fact, there is a problem in this, that is, the euro exchange rate is overvalued.†Peng Junming, an investment strategist at the former foreign exchange bureau and CIC In an interview with the media, he said.
European Central Bank governor Markuk said recently that the current weak exchange rate of the euro is conducive to supporting the euro zone exports, so that the euro zone will benefit from the recovery.
Markuk said the weak euro gave the eurozone a return when trying to recover from the global economic crisis.
Many of Europe's export-oriented products, in the context of the depreciation of the euro, are tantamount to price cuts, but exports have risen.
In terms of European exports of wheat (information, market conditions), EU food producers are enjoying it. Since the fall of the euro, their food exports have been growing. From the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, French grain producers are still demonstrating the price of agricultural products. In the first quarter of this year, EU wheat exports were 13.7 million tons, and as of mid-May, wheat exports reached 15.4 million. Ton. The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has plummeted recently, and it has played a positive role in the export of the euro zone countries. The French media commented that this is really a few joys.
Germany is a larger economy and a major exporter in the Eurozone, and the fall in the euro exchange rate is particularly beneficial to it. German exports slowed in 2009,
In March this year, the chain increased by 10.7%. The German Economic Research Institute said this week that it now predicts that Germany’s exports will grow by 7.25% this year and will increase by another 6% in 2011. Michael Schutt, head of the institute, said that the fall in the euro against the US dollar "will benefit German exports." "In this context, exports will be the driving force behind Germany's economic recovery."
China's foreign trade companies' profits have shrunk in Europe, which may benefit from the depreciation of the euro. However, the passive appreciation of the renminbi caused by its depreciation has caused Chinese export enterprises to be severely tested.
The EU is one of China's major export markets and one of the more important trading partners, accounting for 16% of China's trade. With the depreciation of the euro, Chinese export companies have once again suffered a major impact after the international financial crisis.
Officials from the Ministry of Commerce have said that the depreciation of the euro will impose enormous cost pressure on Chinese exporters and will also have an impact on the adjustment of trade policies.
Huo Jianguo, dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out in an interview with the media that the depreciation of the euro was relatively slow, but in the second half of April to mid-May, the depreciation rate increased rapidly. It is equivalent to the effect of direct policy regulation. Therefore, China's exports of electromechanical and textile products to Europe will have a significant impact.
In Shandong, a person in charge of exporting straw products to Europe said that the company's products are mainly sold to European countries. In the past, it was settled in US dollars. Since 2006, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has continued to appreciate, so in 2008, The company and major customers negotiated to use the euro settlement. Originally thought that the exchange rate of the RMB against the euro was relatively stable, and switching to the euro settlement could effectively avoid exchange rate risks. I did not expect that since the end of last year, the RMB has also appreciated against the euro, and the company has once again lost profits due to the appreciation of the exchange rate.
Similarly, in Zhejiang, a large glass fiber company was also seriously injured in the current round of the depreciation of the euro. The company exported more than 70,000 tons of fiberglass to Europe in the previous quarter, at around 90 euros per ton. If the euro does not depreciate, they can exchange 990 million yuan, but now they can only exchange RMB 7.6 million. . A quarter less than 2.3 million yuan, a loss of 9.2 million yuan a year. For labor-intensive companies with very low profits, such exchange rate changes combined with anti-dumping tariffs make them feel a bit overwhelmed.
The head of a famous shoe company in Wenzhou believes that the weakness of the euro reflects the current economic situation in Europe and the spending power of the people. Since the main exchange rate risk is borne by the purchaser, it is likely that they will not dare to place large orders and long orders, and then turn to small orders and short orders, which will reduce the number of Chinese exports. He also predicted that the company's export situation to Europe will not be optimistic in the second half of the year, and exports to Europe will decline this year.
Huo Jianguo said that the growth rate of China's exports to Europe is still at 25%. However, due to the impact of the rapid depreciation of the euro, it may be relatively lagging. Therefore, my export growth rate to Europe may fall back in May. I will be in Europe in June. The decline in export growth will be more obvious, and may fall further by 6% to 7%.
Import and purchasing business has been booming. China has been manufacturing-intensive and export-oriented enterprises. The depreciation of the euro is a blow to European export-oriented enterprises, but at this time, it is for importing goods from Europe. For enterprises, they can get more business opportunities. Now, the prices of cars imported from Europe have basically fallen. Germany, France and other countries in the euro zone's car export countries, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Peugeot and Citroen and other models imported into the country, due to the depreciation of the euro, the corresponding decline is not small.
In addition, the hot online brand purchasing business has become more flamboyant due to the depreciation of the euro. Since Europe has many well-known luxury brands, the stores that are engaged in the purchasing business are very happy now, because these luxury goods are equivalent to discounts in disguise. A Taobao purchasing seller has calculated the account, like LV's neverful medium bag, the price of Europe is 455 euros, according to the exchange rate of the euro 9.8:1 at the beginning of the year, and then calculate the original price of 8% of the purchase fee, freight, this The price of the bag is more than 4,800 yuan. According to the current "8 era" exchange rate calculation, the price of this bag can be reduced to more than 4,000 yuan. This kind of price has attracted a lot of white-collar workers to take advantage of the bottom.