On March 22, US local time, Trump signed a memorandum of president. According to the US "301 investigation" on China, it will impose a package of tariffs on Chinese products exported to the United States of up to 60 billion U.S. dollars per year, and sued China at the WTO. Introduce measures to limit Chinese investment in the United States. According to the memorandum of the day, the Office of the US Trade Representative will formulate specific plans for tariffs on Chinese goods within 15 days of signing the documents. For the "301 Survey" report released by the US Trade Representative Office, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that the US side ignores the fact that China strengthens intellectual property protection, ignores the rules of the WTO, ignores the voices of the broad masses of the industry, and insists on its own way. This is typical of unilateralism and Trade protectionism. However, in the tension of trade friction, there is also a small episode. According to Caixin.com, since the memo did not mention and Trump’s speech was not clear, it was not clear at the time that “$60 billion†refers to the value of Chinese products that are subject to tariffs, or the expected tariff revenue. The major media in the United States have also given different interpretations: The Wall Street Journal believes that it is taxing imported goods worth $60 billion; the Washington Post believes it is a $60 billion tariff; the New York Times is constantly on the manuscript. Two explanations have appeared during the update process. However, later, both Chinese and foreign media adopted the idea of ​​taxing imported goods worth $60 billion. Bottom-up and top-down After Trump signed the memorandum, the Chinese and US stock markets fell, and the Chinese home appliance white horse stocks also suffered a decline. Goldman Sachs, an American consulting firm, believes that in terms of power tools and electrical products, the US trade deficit with China is significant, and these categories will become the top tax targets. Many economists pointed out that the latest series of tariff measures in the United States aims to suppress 10 high-tech technologies such as information technology, robotics, aerospace equipment, new energy vehicles, and electric power equipment that are clearly prioritized in the "Made in China 2025" industrial policy. The technology industry has weakened China’s threat to US “hegemonyâ€. "As far as the home appliance industry is concerned, the source of trade friction in the past lies in the competition of enterprises or the market. This trade friction has risen to the national strategic level, and the industries and industrial chains that may be affected are quite extensive." China Household Electrical Appliances Association Information Consulting Department Hu Xiaohong, a senior consultant, told China National Grid that many of the previous trade frictions could be summarized as bottom-up, and this time from top to bottom. In fact, last year, U.S. Business Cloth conducted anti-dumping investigations against large-scale domestic washing machines produced in China. The direct source was that American home appliance manufacturing company Whirlpool pointed directly to Samsung and LG and filed anti-dumping complaints with the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. Hu Xiaohong told China National Grid that the United States had carried out "sanctions" on washing machines for South Korean home appliance companies Samsung and LG. Later, the two companies shifted their production capacity to China, and the US anti-dumping machine for washing machines went all the way to China. In fact, the share of large-capacity washing machines exported by Chinese companies to the United States is not high. "Compared with the top ten industries of "Made in China 2025", the added value of home appliances is relatively low, and it is unlikely to become a key option for the United States to impose heavy taxes." Zuo Yanzhen, general manager of Zhongyikang Brand Center, believes that in the traditional sense The "trade war" is hard to break out. This time it is very likely that the thunder and rain are small. In the view of Yu Zhisheng, former Secretary-General of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, this trade friction is actually a rebalancing of the politics and economy of big countries to the field of international trade. In response to the current trade deficit situation in the United States, Ren Zeping’s economic researcher Ren Zeping believes that in the global division of labor system, China is more responsible for the role of producing countries, including imports from Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, etc., and China’s The trade surplus actually represents the surplus of the entire Asian system to the United States, forming a pattern of “surplus in China, profits falling in Europe and Americaâ€. Editor in charge: Li Qun United States: ideal is very full of reality, very skinny Although the list of US tariffs on China has not yet been announced, in terms of the home appliance industry, the impact on both sides has gradually become clear. According to statistics from the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, China is the largest importer of the US home appliance industry, accounting for about 50% of the US home appliance industry's imports (excluding parts and components). Among them, the proportion of window-wall air conditioners and microwave ovens in home appliances is over 80%; The proportion of vacuum cleaners, food processing machines and coffee machines in small household appliances exceeds 70%, the proportion of hair dryers and electric irons exceeds 80%, and the proportion of electric hair clippers and electric toasters exceeds 90%. "The United States has a very high dependence on Chinese household electrical appliances. The United States should be more injured in trade frictions." Yu Zhizhen told China National Grid that if the United States imposes high tariffs on China's home appliance industry, China's home appliance exports to the United States will fall sharply, replacing Capacity will not be realized in the short term, and it is bound to increase the purchase cost of US consumers due to imbalances in market supply and demand. Zuo Yanxi said that once China's relatively inexpensive home appliances are abandoned, it will affect the happy life of the American people. People struggling under the poverty line will have to spend more money to get these appliances. On March 28th, US Trade Representative Wright Heze said that the number of days for the list of products that the United States will impose tariffs on China will be extended from 30 days to 60 days, which means that it will not export related products to China until June of this year. Add tariffs. "The trade war can't be made at a glance. There is a process of preparation for this." Hu Xiaohong told China National Grid that China's home appliance industry has a pivotal position in the world, the upstream and downstream industry chain is perfect, the enterprise management development maturity and production operation efficiency, Comparative advantages such as labor cost ratio can not be replaced. Even if the "trade war" starts, the United States needs to spend time researching feasible measures in terms of finding alternative capacity and reducing product cost. China: The influence of household appliances is very small, and the impact of small household appliances is relatively large. The United States is also the largest exporter of China's household electrical appliance industry. According to estimates by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, China's household electrical appliance industry's total export value in 2017 was 62.45 billion US dollars, of which exports to the United States were 14.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 23.1% of the total exports of the household electrical appliance industry. In terms of export scale, the products that exported more than US$1 billion to the US in 2017 mainly include air conditioners, microwave ovens, vacuum cleaners, and electric baking appliances. The export volume of vacuum cleaners and electric baking appliances increased by double digits. The export volume of each category accounts for the proportion of total exports. The United States is China's air conditioners, compression refrigerators, freezers, microwave ovens, electric fans, food processing machines, electric heaters, electric irons, electric baking appliances, coffee machines/electric kettles. The largest exporter of 13 products such as bread machine, rice cooker and gas stove, the proportion of microwave oven, vacuum cleaner and electric baking utensils exceeds 30%; the proportion of coffee machine/electric kettle exceeds 40%. "In terms of attributes, the ice-washing class is a regional product. The transportation distance and volume have a relatively large impact on the cost, while the small appliances belong to the smooth-type products. Therefore, the small household appliances exported to the US are more important than the large ones. Home appliances." Hu Xiaohong said that the United States has a strong dependence on Chinese household appliances, especially small household appliances. If China and the United States conduct a comprehensive trade war on home appliances, the products affected by China's home appliance industry are mainly concentrated in the field of small household appliances, especially It is a relatively large product such as vacuum cleaners, microwave ovens, and electric baking appliances, while ice-washing air-based household appliances have little impact. Overall, there will be an impact in the short term, but the long-term impact will be small. Hu Xiaohong added that once the tax on small household appliances is added, both China and the United States will be "very hurt." From this perspective, the more important the clamping method, the less likely it will be. "Trade friction is not always a risk, but also some opportunities." Yu Zhizhen believes that if Chinese household electrical appliances are heavily taxed in the United States, Chinese household electrical appliance enterprises can trade friction through capacity transfer and product structure upgrading. avoid. Moreover, in the case of rushing sales, Chinese home appliance companies will spend more energy on product technology research and development, quality improvement, and structural upgrading, thereby accelerating their internal competitiveness. Enterprises have clarified the impact of trade friction At present, domestic appliance leading enterprises such as Haier, Midea, Gree, etc. are all investing overseas, and these companies are currently exporting to the United States with a low proportion of revenue, so domestic appliance leading enterprises are less affected by trade friction. A related person from the marketing department of Meizhi (GMCC) told China National Grid that the company's overall product exports to the United States has a small share. This potential trade friction has basically no impact on production and operation. Midea Group, Little Swan and Shenkangjia A said on the interactive platform that sales to the United States accounted for a small proportion of total sales and had no impact on current operations. Wanhe Electric said that exports to the United States accounted for 27.14% of total revenue in 2017, accounting for 76.20% of total exports. The Sino-US trade war has little impact on the company's export business. According to Xinbao, the sales to the United States accounted for about 30% of the turnover. The production capacity of the industry is mainly concentrated in China, and will closely follow the changes in the follow-up policies of the Sino-US trade war. China National Grid understands that Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute divides the impact of this trade friction into three categories: benefit type, negligible impact, and small impact. Haier has a production base in the United States, which can be directly supplied to the US market. After the acquisition of GEA, the layout in North America is further strengthened, so it is the beneficiary as a whole; the kitchen and electric power companies are mainly domestic sales, and the small household appliances such as Feike and Jiuyang are also sold domestically. Mainly, the impact can be neglected; 90% of Supor’s exports are exported to SEB (the controlling shareholder of France), and SEB’s North American regional operating income accounts for only 8.26% (2017H1 data), so the impact is limited. Midea and Gree export to the United States account for less than 10% of total exports. Hisense Electric and TCL Multimedia have factories in Mexico, so the overall impact is small. In terms of governance, Haier has a local layout to avoid trade frictions to a greater extent, but the capacity of local factories in the United States should not be sufficient to support Haier's full coverage of the US market. “The case of Haier tells us that whether it is directly investing in overseas factories or realizing mergers and acquisitions, it is an effective means to avoid trade friction and reduce losses.†Zuo Yanxi said that in the wave of globalization, brand mergers and acquisitions, brand alliances, etc. It has become one of the important means for China's home appliance enterprises to expand their scale, enhance their strength and improve their efficiency. Therefore, how to formulate a correct international brand strategy is also one of the issues facing Chinese enterprises to “go globalâ€, which will also effectively reduce the impact of trade friction. Tariffs outside the bar: exchange rate In fact, in addition to tariff factors, overseas sales will also be affected by factors such as exchange rates, policies, and legal systems. "Although the company's main power equipment belongs to one of the top ten industries of "Made in China 2025", it does not export to the US market. It seems to have escaped, but it is still not happy." One is engaged in import and export in Guangdong. Trade staff told China National Grid that although it is not related to Sino-US trade friction, the exchange rate is very "annoying". On March 27, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through 6.25, and the offshore RMB rose above the 6.24 mark, both hitting a new high since the “811 exchange reform†in 2015. "Changes in exchange rates often prevent many contracts from being executed. Sometimes they are executed according to the original quotation. The company basically does not make money or even loses money." The employee said that the renminbi has recently appreciated a lot, and it is of course "buy and buy" abroad. It is good, but it is not a good thing for export-oriented enterprises. The import and export orders of enterprises are mostly denominated in US dollars. The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is obvious. The large fluctuations in exchange rates will bring exchange losses to enterprises, which will lead to an increase in financial expenses. The financial industry suggests that on the one hand, foreign trade enterprises should closely follow the bilateral exchange rate fluctuations of the renminbi against the countries of trade, prefer to use renminbi settlement, and directly avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; on the other hand, risk hedge can be hedged by exchange rate hedging. , lock in the losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations in advance. After the financial crisis, all countries in the world have realized the importance of the real economy. The Chinese side has paid more attention to improving the quality of supply, meeting the needs of household consumption upgrading and a better life, and gradually moving up the value chain. The United States turned to "going light and real", provoked trade frictions, restricted imports, increased manufacturing employment and investment, and shifted from a consumer country to a producer country. Hu Xiaohong believes that since the accession to the WTO, China's household appliances exports have continued to rise in the global proportion, resulting in a trade surplus that is very conspicuous, so foreign trade friction may become a "normal." While improving the global industrial chain and brand layout, Chinese household electrical appliance enterprises should use various methods to avoid trade friction risks in a longer-term perspective. Editor in charge: Li Qun
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